FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.26 – 212.97

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.2 ±9.8

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 23.1Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 6.97Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 173.19Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.6 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 85.38Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 49.37Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 78.22Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11398, 1293, 4451

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11398, 1293, 4451

Auto

36.0 18%

Teleop

116.1 58%

Endgame

47.8 24%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 342, 3490, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

213 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 342, 3490, 4533

Auto

29.8 15%

Teleop

108.9 53%

Endgame

66.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.04 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score203.3pts

Blue projected score213pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9.7
Score range: 177–239
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 482 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.2Season APEX211.6

36Auto29.8

116.1Teleop108.9

47.8Endgame66.1

115Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	47
teleop	121	135
endgame	72	73
foul	0	0
total	227	255

Result

Final score

227 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 32.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree