FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.62 – 71.85

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173.9 ±10.4

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 35.61Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 53.54Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 37.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 245.1 ±9.8

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -25.08Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 35.39Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 61.54Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7085, 1758, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7085, 1758, 6167

Auto

29.4 25%

Teleop

56.7 48%

Endgame

32.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 1102, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2815, 1102, 1287

Auto

17.6 27%

Teleop

34.9 54%

Endgame

12.7 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.43 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score71.9pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 54.8
Score range: 46–153
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 142.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173.9Season APEX245.1

29.4Auto17.6

56.7Teleop34.9

32.3Endgame12.7

34Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	18
teleop	48	46
endgame	16	18
foul	25	30
total	131	112

Result

Final score

131 – 112

Prediction correct · off by 22.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree