FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

58.55 – 107.51

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 37 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 170.5 ±9.8

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 6.78Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 14.51Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 37.26Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225 ±9.8

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 19.65Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 59.85Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 28.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10619, 10591, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10619, 10591, 4864

Auto

19.5 37%

Teleop

11.6 22%

Endgame

21.0 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11167, 1319, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 1319, 6167

Auto

28.4 27%

Teleop

51.8 49%

Endgame

24.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.79 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score58.6pts

Blue projected score107.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 5%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -49
Score range: 31–136
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 169 vs event baseline 156.7.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

170.5Season APEX225

19.5Auto28.4

11.6Teleop51.8

21Endgame24.7

36Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	3	80
endgame	6	40
foul	0	0
total	23	146

Result

Final score

23 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 37 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree