FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 49

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.16 – 87.04

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

101 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.4 ±9.8

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 57.44Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 27.8Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 28.92Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145 ±10.4

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 18.7Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 44.45Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 23.89Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10367, 4864, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10367, 4864, 11167

Auto

23.0 19%

Teleop

63.0 53%

Endgame

32.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4083, 8137, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

87 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4083, 8137, 11308

Auto

17.6 22%

Teleop

36.7 47%

Endgame

24.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.26 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score114.2pts

Blue projected score87pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.1
Score range: 61–140
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.4Season APEX145

23Auto17.6

63Teleop36.7

32.8Endgame24

94Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	26
teleop	54	19
endgame	26	13
foul	0	0
total	101	58

Result

Final score

101 – 58

Prediction correct · off by 21.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree