FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.47 – 128.29

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 204.9 ±9.8

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 46.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 41.13Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 6.44Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 222.9 ±9.8

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 50.65Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 60.92Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 16.72Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1319, 10231, 10619

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1319, 10231, 10619

Auto

15.9 17%

Teleop

54.4 58%

Endgame

23.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 11254, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 343, 11254, 10591

Auto

27.3 22%

Teleop

55.7 44%

Endgame

43.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score94.5pts

Blue projected score128.3pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.8
Score range: 68–154
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 284 vs event baseline 144.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

204.9Season APEX222.9

15.9Auto27.3

54.4Teleop55.7

23.2Endgame43.4

77Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	17
teleop	58	60
endgame	29	79
foul	0	15
total	113	171

Result

Final score

113 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree