FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.67 – 100.72

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

329 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 90.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.8 ±9.3

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 44.73Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 90.29Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 38.65Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.9 ±10.4

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 21.25Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 70.64Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 8.83Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1287, 6366, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1287, 6366, 11424

Auto

47.4 30%

Teleop

98.8 63%

Endgame

10.1 6%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10388, 281, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10388, 281, 9315

Auto

29.1 28%

Teleop

53.1 52%

Endgame

20.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score173.7pts

Blue projected score100.7pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.9
Score range: 75–200
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 456 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

380.8Season APEX126.9

47.4Auto29.1

98.8Teleop53.1

10.1Endgame20.4

33Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	26
teleop	206	55
endgame	79	46
foul	0	0
total	329	127

Result

Final score

329 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 90.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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