FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.35 – 123.46

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

75 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.2 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 31.17Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 29.35Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 36.83Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 226.9 ±9.8

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 63.11Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 27.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 32.83Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4864, 11398, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 11398, 7085

Auto

24.9 25%

Teleop

49.3 49%

Endgame

27.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1758, 11308, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1758, 11308, 11167

Auto

33.8 27%

Teleop

55.8 45%

Endgame

35.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 2%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score97.4pts

Blue projected score123.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 2%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.1
Score range: 71–149
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 143.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.2Season APEX226.9

24.9Auto33.8

49.3Teleop55.8

27Endgame35.6

91Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	23
teleop	29	44
endgame	23	17
foul	5	0
total	75	84

Result

Final score

75 – 84

Prediction correct · off by 30.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree