FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

55.6 – 215.95

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 116.3 ±10.4

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 37.86Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 40.78Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -23.04Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 281.9 ±9.8

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 15.87Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 115.85Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 84.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6167, 3489, 2815

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.6 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6167, 3489, 2815

Auto

12.1 23%

Teleop

19.5 37%

Endgame

20.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4083, 8575, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

216 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4083, 8575, 342

Auto

32.4 15%

Teleop

106.8 50%

Endgame

73.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.32 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score55.6pts

Blue projected score216pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -160.3
Score range: 30–242
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 282 vs event baseline 143.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

116.3Season APEX281.9

12.1Auto32.4

19.5Teleop106.8

20.6Endgame73

60Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	28
teleop	19	104
endgame	14	89
foul	0	15
total	46	236

Result

Final score

46 – 236

Prediction correct · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree