FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

63.59 – 273.83

7%93%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173 ±9.8

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 4.3Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 9.23Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 50.06Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.9 ±9.8

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 36.25Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 177.62Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 59.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10619, 1293, 3490

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.6 pts

~0.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10619, 1293, 3490

Auto

13.4 21%

Teleop

24.4 39%

Endgame

24.9 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11424, 4451, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

273.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11424, 4451, 11254

Auto

38.4 15%

Teleop

149.1 57%

Endgame

72.9 28%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.24 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score63.6pts

Blue projected score273.8pts

Red win probability7%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -210.2
Score range: 38–300
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 358 vs event baseline 143.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173Season APEX326.9

13.4Auto38.4

24.4Teleop149.1

24.9Endgame72.9

104Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	59
teleop	38	160
endgame	20	69
foul	0	0
total	70	288

Result

Final score

70 – 288

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree