FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

175.02 – 119.54

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.4 ±10.4

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 69.19Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 60Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 45.83Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.3 ±10.4

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 75.46Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 31Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 13.08Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 281, 10367, 8137

/ 100 compat

Projected

175 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 281, 10367, 8137

Auto

28.1 16%

Teleop

100.7 57%

Endgame

47.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4533, 1102, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4533, 1102, 10591

Auto

33.5 30%

Teleop

51.2 46%

Endgame

26.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.44 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score175pts

Blue projected score119.5pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.5
Score range: 94–201
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 142.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.4Season APEX165.3

28.1Auto33.5

100.7Teleop51.2

47.6Endgame26.2

44Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	30
teleop	126	83
endgame	27	33
foul	5	15
total	196	161

Result

Final score

196 – 161

Prediction correct · off by 31.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree