FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.13 – 134.67

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 209.4 ±9.8

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 3.83Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -3.87Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 40.17Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 157.4 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 37.11Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 45.31Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 52.25Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4083, 9315, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4083, 9315, 343

Auto

16.0 37%

Teleop

14.3 33%

Endgame

13.4 31%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 10231, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 10231, 1319

Auto

13.4 10%

Teleop

79.4 59%

Endgame

41.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.57 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score40.1pts

Blue projected score134.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.5
Score range: 14–161
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 142.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

209.4Season APEX157.4

16Auto13.4

14.3Teleop79.4

13.4Endgame41.1

39Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	12
teleop	50	57
endgame	35	33
foul	30	0
total	143	102

Result

Final score

143 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree