FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

192.84 – 227

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

77 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 299.9 ±9.8

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 101.74Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -8.27Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 99.37Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.3 ±9.3

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 43.54Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 64.89Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 118.57Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6366, 2815, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6366, 2815, 342

Auto

34.1 18%

Teleop

109.1 58%

Endgame

43.3 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1287, 1758, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

227 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1287, 1758, 8575

Auto

57.0 27%

Teleop

115.1 54%

Endgame

42.9 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score192.8pts

Blue projected score227pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.2
Score range: 167–253
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 142.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

299.9Season APEX374.3

34.1Auto57

109.1Teleop115.1

43.3Endgame42.9

36Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	40
teleop	56	118
endgame	7	67
foul	0	5
total	77	230

Result

Final score

77 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 59.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree