FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

121.75 – 63.07

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 163 ±10.4

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 36.01Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 47.01Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 38.73Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.8 ±9.8

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 31.4Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 7.8Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 23.87Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6167, 8137, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6167, 8137, 11424

Auto

22.0 18%

Teleop

63.6 53%

Endgame

34.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11308, 10619, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11308, 10619, 10388

Auto

18.0 28%

Teleop

33.4 51%

Endgame

14.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score121.8pts

Blue projected score63.1pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 58.7
Score range: 37–148
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 144.2.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

163Season APEX171.8

22Auto18

63.6Teleop33.4

34.1Endgame14

56Consistency82

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	22	6
endgame	13	8
foul	50	0
total	107	33

Result

Final score

107 – 33

Prediction correct · off by 22.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree