FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

113.63 – 238.46

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

122 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.3 ±9.8

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 63.5Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 60.52Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -10.39Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 290.1 ±9.8

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 26.06Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 90.9Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 121.5Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11254, 343, 2815

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.6 pts

~0.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11254, 343, 2815

Auto

19.6 18%

Teleop

47.9 43%

Endgame

43.8 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11398, 4533, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

238.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11398, 4533, 6366

Auto

58.6 25%

Teleop

131.3 57%

Endgame

42.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.44 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score113.6pts

Blue projected score238.5pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.8
Score range: 86–266
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 309 vs event baseline 156.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

220.3Season APEX290.1

19.6Auto58.6

47.9Teleop131.3

43.8Endgame42.4

79Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	65
teleop	54	115
endgame	50	2
foul	0	5
total	122	187

Result

Final score

122 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree