FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.57 – 123.98

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

63 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.8 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 61.17Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 12.72Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -1.32Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234 ±9.8

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 35.61Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 58.6Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 29.77Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10367, 10591, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10367, 10591, 9315

Auto

25.4 34%

Teleop

30.5 40%

Endgame

19.9 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 11254, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

124 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 343, 11254, 11398

Auto

26.5 21%

Teleop

63.7 50%

Endgame

37.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.85 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score72.6pts

Blue projected score124pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.4
Score range: 47–150
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 145.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.8Season APEX234

25.4Auto26.5

30.5Teleop63.7

19.9Endgame37.5

38Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	33
teleop	31	73
endgame	10	51
foul	0	0
total	63	157

Result

Final score

63 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree