FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

160.17 – 274.16

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.3 ±10.4

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 36Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 66.56Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 57.61Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 380.1 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 182.15Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 39.09Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 52.92Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10231, 4533, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

160.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10231, 4533, 281

Auto

36.7 24%

Teleop

79.8 52%

Endgame

36.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4451, 11167, 3490

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4451, 11167, 3490

Auto

32.9 12%

Teleop

166.9 63%

Endgame

64.9 25%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.49 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score160.2pts

Blue projected score274.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114
Score range: 134–300
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 480 vs event baseline 142.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.3Season APEX380.1

36.7Auto32.9

79.8Teleop166.9

36.9Endgame64.9

89Consistency143

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	38
teleop	126	137
endgame	59	78
foul	0	0
total	227	253

Result

Final score

227 – 253

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree