FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.25 – 96.01

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

121 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164 ±10.4

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 44.86Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 47.78Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 30.61Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 133.4 ±10.4

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 50.92Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 40.46Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 4.63Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3489, 1319, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3489, 1319, 1102

Auto

14.2 12%

Teleop

73.5 60%

Endgame

35.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8137, 7085, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8137, 7085, 1293

Auto

19.9 21%

Teleop

38.4 41%

Endgame

35.9 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.25 · Blue 0.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score123.3pts

Blue projected score96pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.2
Score range: 70–149
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 210 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164Season APEX133.4

14.2Auto19.9

73.5Teleop38.4

35.1Endgame35.9

50Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	20
teleop	72	39
endgame	32	30
foul	0	0
total	121	89

Result

Final score

121 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 4.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree