FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

137.71 – 72.22

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 213.7 ±9.8

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 16.99Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -1.66Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 122.38Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 138.5 ±10.4

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -8.58Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 28.55Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 52.25Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10591, 2815, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10591, 2815, 8575

Auto

38.1 28%

Teleop

64.6 47%

Endgame

34.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9315, 4864, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9315, 4864, 11254

Auto

20.7 28%

Teleop

21.2 28%

Endgame

33.0 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score137.7pts

Blue projected score72.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 65.5
Score range: 46–164
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 231 vs event baseline 144.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

213.7Season APEX138.5

38.1Auto20.7

64.6Teleop21.2

34.8Endgame33

67Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	16
teleop	34	64
endgame	24	49
foul	15	0
total	102	129

Result

Final score

102 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 46.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree