FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.13 – 58.49

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

96 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 135.6 ±10.4

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 40.74Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 59.93Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 24.46Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±9.8

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 29.52Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 32.78Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -3.81Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6167, 3490, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6167, 3490, 10388

Auto

18.6 15%

Teleop

72.4 57%

Endgame

35.4 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11398, 11167, 4083

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11398, 11167, 4083

Auto

27.5 44%

Teleop

28.2 45%

Endgame

6.7 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.54 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score125.1pts

Blue projected score58.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.6
Score range: 32–151
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

135.6Season APEX185

18.6Auto27.5

72.4Teleop28.2

35.4Endgame6.7

53Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	23
teleop	56	30
endgame	26	34
foul	0	0
total	96	87

Result

Final score

96 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 28.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree