FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

315.84 – 104.26

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

265 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 438.1 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 186.47Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 51.39Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 77.98Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 253.4 ±9.8

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.34Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 39.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 31.59Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 1287, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

315.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4451, 1287, 4533

Auto

57.9 19%

Teleop

183.0 59%

Endgame

68.2 22%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11308, 343, 1102

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.3 pts

~0.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11308, 343, 1102

Auto

17.2 17%

Teleop

59.6 58%

Endgame

26.1 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.04 · Blue 0.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score315.8pts

Blue projected score104.3pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 211.6
Score range: 78–342
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 145.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

438.1Season APEX253.4

57.9Auto17.2

183Teleop59.6

68.2Endgame26.1

123Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	14
teleop	127	35
endgame	38	25
foul	50	0
total	265	74

Result

Final score

265 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 40.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree