FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.05 – 93.46

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

190 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.4 ±9.3

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 11.78Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 55.64Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 95.63Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.5 ±10.4

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 50.17Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 34.44Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 8.85Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10619, 281, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10619, 281, 6366

Auto

42.0 26%

Teleop

101.7 64%

Endgame

15.9 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1319, 7085, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.5 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1319, 7085, 1293

Auto

16.5 19%

Teleop

40.0 46%

Endgame

30.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 0.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score163.1pts

Blue projected score93.5pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 2%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 69.6
Score range: 67–189
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 279 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.4Season APEX139.5

42Auto16.5

101.7Teleop40

15.9Endgame30.6

59Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	22
teleop	120	38
endgame	36	24
foul	0	5
total	190	89

Result

Final score

190 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 15.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree