FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

82.63 – 176.68

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 134.6 ±10.4

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 49.97Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 24.54Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 8.12Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 285.7 ±9.8

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -3.22Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 183.9Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -4Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3490, 11308, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 11308, 10591

Auto

18.7 23%

Teleop

38.4 48%

Endgame

23.1 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 4451, 4083

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2815, 4451, 4083

Auto

30.1 18%

Teleop

111.2 65%

Endgame

30.1 18%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.62 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score82.6pts

Blue projected score176.7pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.1
Score range: 57–203
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 338 vs event baseline 143.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

134.6Season APEX285.7

18.7Auto30.1

38.4Teleop111.2

23.1Endgame30.1

94Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	17
teleop	83	107
endgame	38	70
foul	0	0
total	144	194

Result

Final score

144 – 194

Prediction correct · off by 39.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree