FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

152.56 – 109

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

136 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 237 ±9.8

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 32.69Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX -3.37Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 123.24Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 249.9 ±9.8

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 48.05Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 40.26Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 20.69Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4864, 9315, 8575

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 9315, 8575

Auto

34.6 22%

Teleop

81.6 53%

Endgame

37.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1287, 8137, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

109 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1287, 8137, 11398

Auto

30.5 29%

Teleop

62.0 60%

Endgame

11.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.38 · Blue 0.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score152.6pts

Blue projected score109pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 83–179
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 289 vs event baseline 143.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

237Season APEX249.9

34.6Auto30.5

81.6Teleop62

37.9Endgame11.1

69Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	40
teleop	59	77
endgame	40	36
foul	0	0
total	136	153

Result

Final score

136 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 30.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree