FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

199.59 – 118.79

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

192 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 205.4 ±10.4

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 55.92Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 49Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 94.67Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.8 ±10.4

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 24.08Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 25.4Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 69.31Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1319, 11424, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1319, 11424, 342

Auto

24.2 12%

Teleop

106.5 54%

Endgame

66.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3489, 7085, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.8 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3489, 7085, 4533

Auto

33.5 29%

Teleop

52.9 45%

Endgame

30.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.57 · Blue 0.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score199.6pts

Blue projected score118.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80.8
Score range: 94–225
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 141.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

205.4Season APEX149.8

24.2Auto33.5

106.5Teleop52.9

66.1Endgame30.9

47Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	44
teleop	91	102
endgame	64	55
foul	15	0
total	192	201

Result

Final score

192 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 44.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree