FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

136.01 – 73.03

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 304.8 ±9.3

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 61.41Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 45.33Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 29.27Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 207.7 ±9.8

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 24.8Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 9.17Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 39.06Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 281, 343, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

136 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 281, 343, 11167

Auto

25.6 19%

Teleop

60.6 44%

Endgame

51.8 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1102, 10619, 10231

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1102, 10619, 10231

Auto

15.8 22%

Teleop

39.2 54%

Endgame

17.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.49 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136pts

Blue projected score73pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63
Score range: 47–162
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 244 vs event baseline 142.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

304.8Season APEX207.7

25.6Auto15.8

60.6Teleop39.2

51.8Endgame17.1

70Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	13
teleop	85	53
endgame	17	42
foul	0	0
total	136	108

Result

Final score

136 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 17.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree