FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

164.23 – 164.55

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 60.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 169.6 ±10.4

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 59.67Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 47.13Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 57.43Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.7 ±9.8

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 14.83Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 42.01Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 107.71Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11254, 6167, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11254, 6167, 10367

Auto

20.6 12%

Teleop

92.1 55%

Endgame

54.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1293, 10388, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1293, 10388, 6366

Auto

30.0 19%

Teleop

89.0 57%

Endgame

36.1 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score164.2pts

Blue projected score164.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.3
Score range: 138–191
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 207 vs event baseline 143.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

169.6Season APEX234.7

20.6Auto30

92.1Teleop89

54.5Endgame36.1

105Consistency45

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	36
teleop	44	55
endgame	38	0
foul	0	0
total	116	91

Result

Final score

116 – 91

Prediction missed · off by 60.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree