FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

142.37 – 47.35

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.8 ±10.4

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 62.77Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 5.64Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 73.96Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 123 ±10.4

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 2.61Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -1.49Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 46.23Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3490, 4083, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

142.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 4083, 1758

Auto

25.1 17%

Teleop

72.5 50%

Endgame

47.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9315, 2815, 8137

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9315, 2815, 8137

Auto

20.6 46%

Teleop

17.4 39%

Endgame

6.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.64 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score142.4pts

Blue projected score47.3pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 95
Score range: 20–169
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.8Season APEX123

25.1Auto20.6

72.5Teleop17.4

47.4Endgame6.9

143Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	14
teleop	32	5
endgame	14	6
foul	15	0
total	83	25

Result

Final score

83 – 25

Prediction correct · off by 40.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree