FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

77.28 – 176.55

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.4 ±10.4

1102M'Aiken Magic

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 20.26Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 23.58Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.44Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354.1 ±8.7

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 128.06Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 35.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 13.41Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1102, 11398, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.3 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1102, 11398, 11308

Auto

28.8 40%

Teleop

31.0 43%

Endgame

12.8 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 11167, 10619

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 11167, 10619

Auto

45.7 25%

Teleop

96.8 54%

Endgame

37.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.55 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score77.3pts

Blue projected score176.5pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.3
Score range: 50–204
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 219 vs event baseline 149.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.4Season APEX354.1

28.8Auto45.7

31Teleop96.8

12.8Endgame37.8

91Consistency187

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	38
teleop	56	69
endgame	12	28
foul	0	0
total	84	135

Result

Final score

84 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 24.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree