FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

80.37 – 194.53

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 18 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 107.9 ±10.4

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 45.97Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 11.89Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 22.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.4 ±10.4

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 70.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 95.12Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 28.98Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10388, 10591, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

80.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10388, 10591, 7085

Auto

18.8 26%

Teleop

25.9 35%

Endgame

28.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 281, 342, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 281, 342, 4864

Auto

25.1 13%

Teleop

95.0 50%

Endgame

70.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.48 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score80.4pts

Blue projected score194.5pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 7%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -114.2
Score range: 53–222
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 239 vs event baseline 147.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

107.9Season APEX199.4

18.8Auto25.1

25.9Teleop95

28.6Endgame70.6

20Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	24
teleop	26	90
endgame	11	56
foul	0	5
total	64	175

Result

Final score

64 – 175

Prediction correct · off by 18 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree