FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

133.85 – 195.1

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 187.3 ±10.4

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 53.64Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 39.29Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 40.92Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.6 ±10.4

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 90.68Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 44.34Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 60.08Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 11254, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4533, 11254, 1319

Auto

29.7 23%

Teleop

58.4 46%

Endgame

39.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1758, 11424, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1758, 11424, 10367

Auto

37.8 20%

Teleop

97.5 51%

Endgame

55.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 6%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.73 · Blue 1.51

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score133.9pts

Blue projected score195.1pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 6%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.2
Score range: 108–221
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 145.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

187.3Season APEX179.6

29.7Auto37.8

58.4Teleop97.5

39.2Endgame55.6

142Consistency115

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	32
teleop	110	86
endgame	48	35
foul	0	0
total	196	153

Result

Final score

196 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 52.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree