FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

107.59 – 125.09

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

36 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.2 ±10.4

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 46.73Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 47.84Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 13.02Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±9.8

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 104.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 18.51Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 1.78Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10231, 11398, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10231, 11398, 9315

Auto

33.1 31%

Teleop

54.5 52%

Endgame

17.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8575, 6167, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8575, 6167, 1293

Auto

19.0 15%

Teleop

69.8 56%

Endgame

35.7 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score107.6pts

Blue projected score125.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.5
Score range: 81–152
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 147.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.2Season APEX235.4

33.1Auto19

54.5Teleop69.8

17.6Endgame35.7

87Consistency200

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	35
teleop	10	91
endgame	6	63
foul	0	0
total	36	189

Result

Final score

36 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree