FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

173.17 – 111.61

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

232 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285 ±9.8

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 86.15Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 31.63Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 55.39Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.9 ±10.4

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX -1.39Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 34.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

281The GreenVillains

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 78.49Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 342, 8137, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

173.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 342, 8137, 343

Auto

12.4 7%

Teleop

102.8 62%

Endgame

51.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2815, 7085, 281

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.6 pts

~0.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2815, 7085, 281

Auto

21.3 20%

Teleop

45.7 43%

Endgame

39.7 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 0.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score173.2pts

Blue projected score111.6pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 4%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 61.6
Score range: 85–200
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 300 vs event baseline 147.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285Season APEX139.9

12.4Auto21.3

102.8Teleop45.7

51.2Endgame39.7

74Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	29
teleop	111	28
endgame	94	11
foul	0	0
total	232	68

Result

Final score

232 – 68

Prediction correct · off by 51.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree