FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.01 – 67.33

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

29 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 131.6 ±10.4

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 35.01Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 58.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 20.18Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 149.5 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 16.5Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 35.7Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 15.13Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10591, 1319, 4083

/ 100 compat

Projected

114 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10591, 1319, 4083

Auto

25.6 23%

Teleop

57.3 52%

Endgame

27.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 3490, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4864, 3490, 11424

Auto

0.9 1%

Teleop

35.9 56%

Endgame

26.8 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score114pts

Blue projected score67.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 46.7
Score range: 40–141
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 150.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

131.6Season APEX149.5

25.6Auto0.9

57.3Teleop35.9

27.7Endgame26.8

114Consistency150

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	30
teleop	8	88
endgame	7	44
foul	0	0
total	29	162

Result

Final score

29 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 89.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree