FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.82 – 120.15

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 164

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.2 ±9.3

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 44.42Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 89.2Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX 20.2Rank 29Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 177.1 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 54.61Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 37.64Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 27.9Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11167, 6366, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 6366, 1293

Auto

34.9 25%

Teleop

83.2 59%

Endgame

22.4 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 4533, 11308

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10367, 4533, 11308

Auto

35.4 30%

Teleop

59.1 50%

Endgame

23.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 7%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.32 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score153.8pts

Blue projected score120.2pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.7
Score range: 93–181
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 150.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.2Season APEX177.1

34.9Auto35.4

83.2Teleop59.1

22.4Endgame23.6

206Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	34	44
teleop	69	78
endgame	26	42
foul	0	0
total	129	164

Result

Final score

129 – 164

Prediction missed · off by 34.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree