FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.55 – 99.13

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

126 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 39.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±9.8

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 63.4Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX -2.17Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1758Technomancers

Season APEX 70.1Event APEX 86.32Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±9.8

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 32.16Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 27.03Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 39.94Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11254, 10619, 1758

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11254, 10619, 1758

Auto

23.1 16%

Teleop

67.6 48%

Endgame

50.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10231, 3489, 1287

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10231, 3489, 1287

Auto

22.5 23%

Teleop

44.1 45%

Endgame

32.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 8%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.42 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score147.5pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.4
Score range: 72–175
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 283 vs event baseline 151.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

219.4Season APEX230.5

23.1Auto22.5

67.6Teleop44.1

50.1Endgame32.4

165Consistency206

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	30
teleop	46	93
endgame	42	34
foul	0	0
total	126	157

Result

Final score

126 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 39.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree