FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

95.97 – 73.4

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

88 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 29.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 129.1 ±10.4

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 31.34Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 15.06Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 49.57Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 210.5 ±9.8

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 32.52Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 23.24Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9315Coding Comets

Season APEX 36.7Event APEX 17.64Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11424, 4083, 11398

/ 100 compat

Projected

96 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11424, 4083, 11398

Auto

30.7 32%

Teleop

53.9 56%

Endgame

12.4 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11167, 4533, 9315

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11167, 4533, 9315

Auto

38.0 53%

Teleop

31.9 44%

Endgame

1.9 3%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score96pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 22.6
Score range: 46–123
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 212 vs event baseline 147.5.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

129.1Season APEX210.5

30.7Auto38

53.9Teleop31.9

12.4Endgame1.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	44
teleop	41	48
endgame	17	32
foul	0	0
total	88	124

Result

Final score

88 – 124

Prediction missed · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree