FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

71.59 – 171.45

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

58 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.3 ±10.4

11308Daniel Morgan Patriots

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 33.52Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 35.4Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 2.67Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 303.6 ±9.8

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 41.76Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 46.14Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 83.55Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11308, 10231, 2815

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.6 pts

~0.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11308, 10231, 2815

Auto

19.9 32%

Teleop

27.7 44%

Endgame

15.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1319, 10367, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

171.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1319, 10367, 6366

Auto

43.7 26%

Teleop

106.3 64%

Endgame

16.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.52 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score71.6pts

Blue projected score171.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 8%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.9
Score range: 45–198
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 148.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.3Season APEX303.6

19.9Auto43.7

27.7Teleop106.3

15.2Endgame16.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	33
teleop	23	143
endgame	14	39
foul	0	5
total	58	220

Result

Final score

58 – 220

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree