FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.84 – 77.47

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

120 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153.2 ±10.4

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 41.53Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 51.31Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 168.8 ±9.8

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 41.53Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 6.15Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX 29.79Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4533, 10388, 8137

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4533, 10388, 8137

Auto

35.1 21%

Teleop

106.4 64%

Endgame

23.8 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11398, 10619, 3489

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 11398, 10619, 3489

Auto

28.1 37%

Teleop

42.7 56%

Endgame

5.4 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 5%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.61 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score169.8pts

Blue projected score77.5pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.4
Score range: 50–197
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 148.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153.2Season APEX168.8

35.1Auto28.1

106.4Teleop42.7

23.8Endgame5.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	22
teleop	54	51
endgame	42	20
foul	5	0
total	120	93

Result

Final score

120 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree