FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.16 – 113.45

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.7 ±9.8

2815Blue Devil Mechanics

Season APEX 28.4Event APEX 35.26Rank 31Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 38.45Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1319Flash

Season APEX 64Event APEX 38.45Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 349.5 ±9.3

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 16.53Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 61.66Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 35.26Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2815, 11167, 1319

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2815, 11167, 1319

Auto

22.5 20%

Teleop

57.8 51%

Endgame

32.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 8575, 343

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10367, 8575, 343

Auto

21.9 18%

Teleop

68.8 55%

Endgame

33.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 3%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score112.2pts

Blue projected score113.5pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 3%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.3
Score range: 86–139
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 146.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.7Season APEX349.5

22.5Auto21.9

57.8Teleop68.8

32.5Endgame33.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	38
teleop	41	152
endgame	13	61
foul	5	0
total	83	251

Result

Final score

83 – 251

Prediction correct · off by 83.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree