FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

134.12 – 134.59

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.6 ±10.4

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 67.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 32.32Rank 30Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 34.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.8 ±9.8

1287Aluminum Assault

Season APEX 149.9Event APEX 74.63Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 14.28Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 45.68Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3490, 10231, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3490, 10231, 7085

Auto

20.9 16%

Teleop

72.1 54%

Endgame

39.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1287, 10388, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1287, 10388, 10367

Auto

27.7 21%

Teleop

78.9 60%

Endgame

24.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 4%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.13

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score134.1pts

Blue projected score134.6pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 4%, blue 9%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.5
Score range: 106–163
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 291 vs event baseline 156.7.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.6Season APEX236.8

20.9Auto27.7

72.1Teleop78.9

39.9Endgame24

72Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	33
teleop	73	88
endgame	49	31
foul	0	0
total	139	152

Result

Final score

139 – 152

Prediction correct · off by 11.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree