FIRST South Carolina State Championship presented by Magna

Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

305.16 – 216.92

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.7 ±8.7

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 176.29Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 7.03Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6366RAM Rodz Robotics

Season APEX 180.5Event APEX 121.84Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 339.5 ±9.3

343Metal-In-Motion

Season APEX 136.1Event APEX 61.47Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8575The Due Westerners

Season APEX 154.3Event APEX 120.09Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 35.36Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 10619, 6366

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4451, 10619, 6366

Auto

54.8 19%

Teleop

178.8 61%

Endgame

61.5 21%

Strengths

· 4451 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 343, 8575, 7085

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 343, 8575, 7085

Auto

39.0 18%

Teleop

110.7 52%

Endgame

63.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 0.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score305.2pts

Blue projected score216.9pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample154alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 6%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.2
Score range: 189–333
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 489 vs event baseline 154.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.7Season APEX339.5

54.8Auto39

178.8Teleop110.7

61.5Endgame63.1

33Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	34
teleop	147	88
endgame	70	59
foul	15	15
total	293	196

Result

Final score

293 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 16.5 pts

Match videos

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