FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.79 – 71.5

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 0.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.1 ±9.8

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -8.66Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 19.23Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 38.22Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.3 ±10.4

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 20.92Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 25.66Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 24.92Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3489, 4083, 11167

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3489, 4083, 11167

Auto

17.4 41%

Teleop

15.3 36%

Endgame

10.2 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11424, 11398, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11424, 11398, 11254

Auto

27.5 38%

Teleop

35.1 49%

Endgame

9.1 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.01 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.8pts

Blue projected score71.5pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.7
Score range: 32–89
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 122 vs event baseline 94.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.1Season APEX148.3

17.4Auto27.5

15.3Teleop35.1

10.2Endgame9.1

72Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	32
teleop	21	24
endgame	14	16
foul	0	0
total	50	72

Result

Final score

50 – 72

Prediction correct · off by 0.9 pts

Match videos

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