FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

72.41 – 67.02

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 159.8 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 28.22Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 23.47Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 20.72Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.3 ±10.4

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 19.52Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 23.83Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 23.67Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10367, 6167, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 6167, 4864

Auto

19.3 27%

Teleop

31.6 44%

Endgame

21.7 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11424, 11398, 11254

/ 100 compat

Projected

67 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11424, 11398, 11254

Auto

26.5 40%

Teleop

31.7 47%

Endgame

8.7 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.4pts

Blue projected score67pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.4
Score range: 51–88
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 91.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

159.8Season APEX148.3

19.3Auto26.5

31.6Teleop31.7

21.7Endgame8.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	34
teleop	46	55
endgame	19	16
foul	0	0
total	92	105

Result

Final score

92 – 105

Prediction missed · off by 28.8 pts

Match videos

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