FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.53 – 47.73

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

79 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 21.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 127.5 ±10.4

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 3.64Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7085Wired Warriors

Season APEX 49.1Event APEX 37.69Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX 0.2Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.9 ±9.8

3490Viper Drive

Season APEX 53.1Event APEX 26.69Rank 16Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8430The Hatch Batch

Season APEX 51.3Event APEX 15.42Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 5.62Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10231, 7085, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10231, 7085, 10591

Auto

13.1 40%

Teleop

15.9 49%

Endgame

3.7 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3490, 8430, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3490, 8430, 4533

Auto

13.6 38%

Teleop

14.6 41%

Endgame

7.7 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.5pts

Blue projected score47.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -6.2
Score range: 25–65
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 91.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

127.5Season APEX171.9

13.1Auto13.6

15.9Teleop14.6

3.7Endgame7.7

5Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	20
teleop	37	18
endgame	15	16
foul	0	0
total	79	54

Result

Final score

79 – 54

Prediction missed · off by 21.9 pts

Match videos

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