FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.05 – 75.07

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

199 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.7 ±10.5

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 56.44Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10361Gatorbots

Season APEX 35Event APEX 3.59Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 55.02Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 159.8 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 29.09Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 21.21Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6167CB Bearbots

Season APEX 54.7Event APEX 24.77Rank 14Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 10361, 342

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4451, 10361, 342

Auto

11.0 10%

Teleop

64.3 56%

Endgame

39.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 4864, 6167

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 4864, 6167

Auto

19.3 26%

Teleop

33.8 45%

Endgame

22.3 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 0.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.1pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40
Score range: 59–131
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 90.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.7Season APEX159.8

11Auto19.3

64.3Teleop33.8

39.4Endgame22.3

5Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	22
teleop	116	30
endgame	60	24
foul	0	0
total	199	76

Result

Final score

199 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 42.4 pts

Match videos

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