FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

63.42 – 35.69

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

38 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.3 ±9.8

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -7.98Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 44.96Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 26.44Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 109 ±10.4

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 23.4Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 18.05Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX -5.76Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3489, 8116, 10367

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3489, 8116, 10367

Auto

21.3 34%

Teleop

22.9 37%

Endgame

18.2 29%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4864, 4083, 1293

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4864, 4083, 1293

Auto

11.9 29%

Teleop

15.2 37%

Endgame

14.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63.4pts

Blue projected score35.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.7
Score range: 18–81
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 72 vs event baseline 99.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.3Season APEX109

21.3Auto11.9

22.9Teleop15.2

18.2Endgame14

61Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	11
teleop	12	7
endgame	3	16
foul	0	0
total	38	34

Result

Final score

38 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 13.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree