FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.87 – 63.45

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 125.7 ±10.4

11254FIRST Ignition

Season APEX 55.8Event APEX 30.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11398Shark Bytes

Season APEX 42.1Event APEX 29.77Rank 19Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10388The Iron Wolverine Angels

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 7.42Rank 21Record 4-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199 ±11.2

4083The Legendary Iron Wolverines

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX 8.27Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1648G3 Robotics

Season APEX 139.4Event APEX 54.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3976Electric Hornets

Season APEX 23Event APEX 0.37Rank 18Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11254, 11398, 10388

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11254, 11398, 10388

Auto

23.2 37%

Teleop

25.6 41%

Endgame

13.4 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4083, 1648, 3976

/ 100 compat

Projected

63.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 4083, 1648, 3976

Auto

21.5 34%

Teleop

29.7 47%

Endgame

11.9 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.9pts

Blue projected score63.5pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 48–83
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 83.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

125.7Season APEX199

23.2Auto21.5

25.6Teleop29.7

13.4Endgame11.9

0Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	21
teleop	20	99
endgame	7	40
foul	0	15
total	49	175

Result

Final score

49 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 65.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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