FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

74.63 – 46.32

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

92 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.7 ±9.3

11167Team Titan

Season APEX 106.3Event APEX 39.47Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1293Pandamaniacs

Season APEX 26.4Event APEX -6.56Rank 27Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8116Hatchet Robotics

Season APEX 99Event APEX 41.72Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 169.4 ±10.4

342Burning Magnetos

Season APEX 91Event APEX 52.79Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10231Midnight Circuits

Season APEX 47.4Event APEX 0.64Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX -7.11Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11167, 1293, 8116

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11167, 1293, 8116

Auto

26.4 36%

Teleop

31.7 44%

Endgame

14.3 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 342, 10231, 10591

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 342, 10231, 10591

Auto

9.2 18%

Teleop

26.8 53%

Endgame

14.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 15%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.6pts

Blue projected score46.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 15%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.3
Score range: 31–90
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.7Season APEX169.4

26.4Auto9.2

31.7Teleop26.8

14.3Endgame14.1

54Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	23
teleop	30	60
endgame	26	23
foul	15	0
total	92	106

Result

Final score

92 – 106

Prediction missed · off by 38.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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