FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

42.05 – 67.74

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.9 ±9.8

8137Byting Bulldogs

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 8.02Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 27.25Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4533Phoenix

Season APEX 67.5Event APEX 6.78Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.5 ±10.4

10367Category 4 Storm Surge

Season APEX 59.1Event APEX 23.43Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 21Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11424Boa Constructors

Season APEX 50.4Event APEX 23.31Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8137, 10619, 4533

/ 100 compat

Projected

42.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8137, 10619, 4533

Auto

9.4 27%

Teleop

20.6 58%

Endgame

5.4 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10367, 4864, 11424

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10367, 4864, 11424

Auto

22.4 33%

Teleop

27.6 41%

Endgame

17.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score42.1pts

Blue projected score67.7pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.7
Score range: 27–83
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 161 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.9Season APEX155.5

9.4Auto22.4

20.6Teleop27.6

5.4Endgame17.6

39Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	26
teleop	23	61
endgame	8	30
foul	0	0
total	44	117

Result

Final score

44 – 117

Prediction correct · off by 25.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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