FSC District North Charleston Event presented by SCDE & City of North Charleston Recreation

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.04 – 208.92

9%91%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

55 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.7 ±9.8

3489Category 5

Season APEX 33.2Event APEX -14.3Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10619Rana's Rivets

Season APEX 93.5Event APEX 23.99Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4864INNovation Station

Season APEX 46Event APEX 16.35Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 363.2 ±10

9496LYNK

A+

Season APEX 297.2Event APEX 199.21Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10591No Cap

Season APEX 31Event APEX -2.76Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10361Gatorbots

Season APEX 35Event APEX 12.47Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3489, 10619, 4864

/ 100 compat

Projected

26 pts

~0.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3489, 10619, 4864

Auto

13.0 50%

Teleop

10.1 39%

Endgame

2.8 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9496, 10591, 10361

/ 100 compat

Projected

208.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 9496, 10591, 10361

Auto

57.0 27%

Teleop

117.4 55%

Endgame

37.4 18%

Strengths

· 9496 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.35 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26pts

Blue projected score208.9pts

Red win probability9%

Event bonus sample140alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -182.9
Score range: 11–224
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 220 vs event baseline 83.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.7Season APEX363.2

13Auto57

10.1Teleop117.4

2.8Endgame37.4

46Consistency83

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	26
teleop	10	121
endgame	18	18
foul	10	0
total	55	165

Result

Final score

55 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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